Upward Forecasts for Production, Exports and Revenue by Roast Magazine Daily Coffee News

Good weather and high demand for Brazilian coffee – caused by weather-related production shortfalls in Vietnam and other major countries – are projected to contribute to increased production and exports in the 2024/25 market year.

Combined with a prolonged period of (relatively) high international prices, the estimated total production growth of 5.4% is expected to generate higher than normal revenues for the Brazilian coffee industry, reaching an estimated US$10.7 billion.

These and other issues are highlighted in the new USDA Foreign Agriculture Service annual report on Brazil’s coffee sector.

[Note: This is part of a series of stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices, with predictions for the 2024/25 market year.]

production

• The FAS office now estimates that Brazil’s coffee production will reach 69.9 million 60-kilogram bags for the 2024/25 marketing year, a An increase of 5.4% over the previous year.
• Arabica coffee production An increase of 7.3% is expected to 48.2 million bags Robusta Production is forecast at 21.7 million bags, a 1.4% increase.
• Brazil has agricultural organizations CONAB and IBGE Lower figures are projected for the 2024 crop Compared to the FAS report, total harvest estimates are 58.8 million and 60.2 million bags, respectively.

Infrastructure problems

• Brazilian coffee exporters face significant logistical challenges, with 81% of shipments are delayed at major ports In March 2024, with 80% at the main port of Santos, resulting in delays of up to 39 days, according to a report by Brazilian exporters association CECAFE.
• Limited gate access to port terminals has increased planning problemAccording to the CECAFE report, there is a high incidence of exporters increasing fees and missing deadlines with international buyers.
• The FAS notes that the industry is struggling Shortage of workers for manual harvestingforcing farmers to start harvesting earlier than the optimum time or to prioritize parts of their crops.

Exports and revenue

• Brazil, the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee and the second largest producer of Robusta, has witnessed Increased demand According to the analysis, poor harvests in Vietnam and disruptions in the Red Sea are driving robusta globally.
• Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture for 2024 coffee crop production Total revenue of approximately US$10.7 billion17% increase from 2023, Arabica 72% and Robusta 28%.
• Arabica coffee revenue is expected to grow by 9.4% Robusta revenue forecast to grow 29%Given Brazil’s favorable climate.

Export trends

• In 2023, Coffee producing countries imported 2.35 million bags Brazil’s coffee, up 16% from the previous year, is the largest buyer with Colombia at 1.09 million bags, according to the analysis.
• Vietnam and Indonesia have significantly increased their Brazilian coffee imports by early 2024 due to climate and logistical challenges. Vietnam is growing by 212% and Indonesia by 119% Compared to the same period in 2023.
• of Brazil Specialty coffee exports increased by 45% According to the report, in the first two months of 2024, it generated a total of 1.57 million bags and $356.9 million, with the United States being the top destination.

cost

• of Brazil Domestic coffee consumption Growth is forecast to 22.67 million bags for 2024/25. Analysts consulted by FAS Post estimate that domestic consumption accounts for about 40% of Brazil’s total coffee production.
• The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC) reported that domestic consumption from November 2022 to October 2023 was 21.67 million bagsRoasted and ground coffee makes up 95% of this total.
• Consumption of instant coffee Brazil has been steadily increasing since 2016, reaching a record 1.05 million bags in 2023, reflecting a 5.2% increase over the previous year, according to the analysis.

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